FXNet Fundamental Analysis on 2016/7/27

July 27, 2016

This article is originally referred from FXNet Fundamental Analysis

Asian markets were mixed on Wednesday as the Federal Reserve prepares to wrap up a key policy meeting, while Tokyo rallied days before an expected Bank of Japan stimulus announcement. Promises of support from governments and central banks around the world since Britain’s shock EU exit vote last month have provided the foundation for big gains across equities markets in recent weeks and now investors are hoping officials follow through in their first meetings since the June 23 ballot. The Federal Reserve concludes its meeting Wednesday and while it is not expected to announce any new policy, the market is keen to find out its appraisal for the US economy and plans for interest rates in light of a string of positive data, including on jobs. The BoJ concludes its gathering Friday and is widely tipped to unveil fresh stimulus as the world’s number three economy struggles and inflation is virtually non-existent. While expectations of new measures have boosted Japanese stocks and sent the yen tumbling — helping exporters — analysts warned of a sharp sell-off if policymakers disappoint. The Nikkei sits +2.1% higher while Shanghai slipped +-1.6%, the Hang Seng -0.17% and the ASX -0.1%.

In FX space Stimulus rumours from Japan saw big moves for the yen. USD/JPY moved from 104.60 to session highs of 106.54 only to fall back towards the 105.00 handle as the Japanese Ministry of Finance quickly denied the claims. The Aussie chopped around following today’s CPI release. The data showed an in line q/q headline inflation result but a higher than expected ‘core’ (trimmed mean) q/q reading. The initial action saw the Aussie rally before falling sharply to session lows.

Oil extended losses after suffering big hits overnight on renewed concerns about oversupply. Trade group American Petroleum Institute (API) said Tuesday that U.S. crude stockpiles fell by 827,000 barrels last week, much less than analysts’ expectations for a drawdown of 2.3 million barrels. WTI was down at $42.88 a barrel while Brent slipped to $44.82.

So to the day ahead and first up we have UK preliminary GDP (0930 BST). The BoE surprised the markets by not lowering rates in July. However, the bank is widely expected to lower rates in August in order to cushion the economic fallout from Brexit. Final GDP in Q1 posted a gain of 0.6%, above the forecast of 0.5%. The estimate for Preliminary GDP in Q2 stands at 0.5%.

US Durable Goods Orders (1330 BST) Demand for durable goods has been hinting at a recovery in recent months in year-on-year terms, but today’s update is expected to deliver another setback in the monthly comparison. Today’s forecast sees headline orders slumping 2.2% in June, which will mark the second monthly decline. Even worse, the projected decline will pull the year-on-year trend back into the red for the first time since March. The good news for the US economy is that consumer spending remains upbeat, which suggests that the weakness in capital expenditures in the corporate sector is only a minor threat to the big picture macro outlook.

Original Source: FXNet Fundamental Analysis

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