FXNet Fundamental Analysis on 2016/7/21

July 21, 2016

This article is originally referred from FXNet Fundamental Analysis

Asian stocks climbed to nine-month highs on Thursday, helped by a pickup in capital inflows and a recovery in global oil prices, while the dollar stood strong on growing bets of a U.S. rate increase as early as September. Portfolio inflows to emerging market assets rose to the highest level in nearly three years last week, according to the latest survey by the Institute of International Finance. Tempering risk appetite, however, was Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan who declared a state of emergency on Wednesday as he widened a crackdown against thousands of members of the security forces, judiciary, civil service and academia after a failed coup. The Nikkei trades +0.7% higher along with Shanghai +0.69%, Hong Kong +0.6% and the ASX +0.48%.

In FX space the Kiwi remains heavy across the board as the RBNZ updated their economic outlook where the central bank stated that more easing is “likely needed to return inflation to target.” In early trading both Sterling and the Yen were again big movers in illiquid trading conditions. Cable topped 1.3274 and USD/JPY reached 107.49 only for both to fall back slightly and trade sideways for the majority of the session. Gold prices clocked a post Brexit low of $1310.50 as increasingly optimistic US economic outlook pushed up Fed rate hike bets and strengthened US dollar while The bid tone around oil remained intact in Asia following yesterday’s strong closing on the back of a bullish US weekly oil inventory data. WTI trades at $45.93 and Brent $47.38 a barrel.

So to the day ahead and first up is UK Retail sales (0930 BST) Retail sales are expected to fall over the month in June as the willingness of consumers to buy was hammered by the decision of UK citizens to leave the European Union (EU) in the June 23 referendum. Although the direct hit from Brexit has been rather muted, increased uncertainty concerning the future economic development is weighing on the outlook for retail sales as well. The retail sale data scheduled for Thursday are expected to show volumes falling back 0.8% over the month in June, although this would still see retail sales up 4.8% year-on-year.

ECB rate announcement (1245 BST) and Press conference (1330 BST).

US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (1330 BST) The initial look at manufacturing activity for July suggests that the June bounce may already be fading at the start of the third quarter. Last week’s update of the New York Fed’s manufacturing index sagged in July after posting a solid gain in the previous month. The good news is that economists are looking for a relatively upbeat set of numbers. The headline index for the Philly Fed’s benchmark is project to tick up to 5.0 from June’s 4.7 reading. If the estimate holds, the news will offer a mildly positive contrast with last week’s worrisome New York Fed release.

Original Source: FXNet Fundamental Analysis

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