Forex Fundamental Analysis on 2016/7/25

July 25, 2016

This article is originally referred from FXNet Market News

Japanese stocks rallied again on Monday following another Wall Street record as dealers look ahead to central bank meetings in Japan and the United States but other Asian markets struggled after racking up healthy recent gains. The bank policymakers’ gatherings are the first since last month’s shock vote in Britain to leave the European Union, which led to promises around the world to provide support to financial markets. The pledges have fanned a surge across global equities markets, with the Dow and S&P 500 in New York both enjoying a series of records, while strong US data has also boosted the dollar as talk of another interest rate hike resurfaces. The Bank of Japan is widely expected to ramp up its stimulus to kick start the struggling economy, although hoped-for helicopter money — the direct injection of cash into the economy such as people’s bank accounts — is not expected to feature. Before that, the Federal Reserve will have its meeting, at which it is tipped to hold rates, but traders will be hoping for some forward guidance on its policy plans. Tokyo trades +0.07% higher, Shanghai +0.25%, Sydney +0.6% while  Hong Kong slips 0.4%.

In FX space Cable opened with a small bounce from late Friday levels to 1.3150 before retracting. USD/JPY traded higher into the Tokyo fix, popping to 106.65 before slipping back to early levels. AUD/USD gained ground in the morning to 0.7480 before giving back a few points whilst NZD/USD was more active, initially opening higher before a sharp stop loss run sent the pair lower.  EUR/USD recovered from lows ahead of 1.0950 to be little changed on the session and Gold traded heavily slipping to session lows of $1313.50 before consolidating.

Oil prices hovered near 2-1/2-month lows after having lost about 4% last week on renewed worries about a global crude glut. WTI slips to $44.06  and Brent trades at $45.57per barrel, its lowest since May 11.

So to the day ahead and it’s a quiet start to the week data wise with German: IFO Survey (0900 BST) set to the focus today. Last week’s ZEW survey of Germany’s financial community raised fresh warnings about the outlook for the economy. The expectations index was particularly hard hit, stumbling in July to its lowest reading since late 2012. ZEW-President Achim Wambach blamed the weakness on last month’s Brexit vote and related concerns about export prospects for Europe’s biggest economy. However, German economic growth picked up speed at the start of the third quarter, Markit Economics advised. The flash estimate for Germany’s PMI Composite Index jumped to a seven-month high of 54.4, well above the neutral 50 mark that separates growth from contraction. Today’s Ifo data may help clear up the mixed messages. If Germany’s macro trend is destined to sag in the second half of 2016, the weakness may show up in the Ifo’s polling of German businesses.

Original Source: FXNet Market News

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