Analysis – Forex Market ahead of “French Election” and “FOMC Minutes”

February 23, 2017

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Analysis – Forex Market ahead of “French Election” and “FOMC Minutes”

Today’s Highlights by FXGiants.

FOMC minutes show little urgency for a March hike

A hike might be appropriate “fairly soon”. But, there is only a modest risk of inflation pressures increasing significantly. Fed would have “ample time” to respond if inflation emerged.

They saw downside risks associated with further appreciation of USD.

Uncertainty over Trump’s policies should not deter them from taking further steps, but adjusting policy in anticipation to that might have different consequences than currently anticipated. French politics still on spotlight

New poll: Le Pen increases her first round lead, but is still seen losing the second.

Veteran French centrist Bayrou announced that he would not run and would instead support Macron. EUR rebounded on the news.

Anything that reduces, or at least not increases, the possibility of Le Pen becoming President is seen as good for the common currency.

EUR to remain sensitive on election headlines.

Germany: Final GDP for Q4 and Gfk consumer sentiment index for Mar. usually not major market movers.

Norway: Oil investment survey for Q1. No forecast, but we see the case for an increase, which may prove NOK-positive.

US: Initial jobless claims for the week ended Feb. 17th.

Speakers: ECB Executive Board member Peter Praet and Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart.

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